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The Australian team's Analyst previews the forthcoming Test series between India and South Africa

Tuesday, March 25, 2008



A pro's meticulous examination


Richard McInnes

This contest matches two teams playing very good Test cricket at the moment. Normally straight off, I would tip India to quite comfortably win this series in India, like I would tip South Africa to win if they were playing at home. However when I looked through the performances of the Indian batsmen against South Africa in India, I was a little surprised. The Indian batsmen will need to overcome some poor past performances, in order to win this series and hope that they can expose South Africa's lack of Test experience in Indian conditions.

The greatest battles in cricket take place inside the players own mind. At times there will be plenty of challenges thrown at a player on the field of both the physical and the verbal variety, but the most difficult challenge is dealing with your own thoughts. I am sure, those that play the game best are those that win this battle more often than not. Looking at the forthcoming India – South Africa Test series, suggests that there will be a few of these mind battles taking place and those that deal with them best, may well determine the outcome of the series.

I have detailed below what I think will be the determining factors in this series.

INDIA

STRENGTHS


© AFP
Tendulkar and Laxman have been India's two most consistent batsmen in Test cricket of late
  • BATTING LINEUP

Tremendous experience: A double strength in this series against what will be an inexperienced bowling line up. The presence of Tendulkar, Ganguly, Dravid and Laxmann is a powerful weapon. All quality players who can make big hundreds.

  • CONFIDENCE

Immense buoyancy: Having played some very good cricket in both forms over the past 12 to 18 months so the energy levels appear very good around Indian cricket.

  • LEADERSHIP GROUP

The combined leadership of Kumble and Dhoni along with the experience offered by Tendulkar, Ganguly and Dravid offer India an outstanding leadership group. Something that I noticed throughout their Australian tour was the amount of communication between this group and the consistent calmness, which has a very positive effect on the younger players.

  • SPIN BOWLING


    © Getty Images
    Kumble and Harbhajan ratted the South Africans during the 2004 Test series

    Kumble and Harbajhan – as with the core batting group, their experience says it all. Kumble took 13 wickets in the last Test match he played in Chennai and Harbajhan took 7 for 87 in the previous Test against South Africa in India. Their overall records against South Africa in India are also impressive; Kumble 35 wickets @ 28, Singh 13 wickets @ 23. They will be supported by Sehwag and possible Yuvraj if he makes the XI. Chawla, looks an outstanding prospect. 

    He bowled well in England last year and again at the back end of the Australian ODI series just completed. With the experience of Kumble and Harbajhan, I find it interesting that the selectors would go for Murali Karthik ahead of Chawla. 

    Although he does give you another variation with his left arm orthodox, but at the expense of fast tracking the development of the next generation of spinner. Karthik's recent injury, as with Sharma's injury, might be a blessing in disguise.· 

    WEAKNESSES

    • FIELDING
    Indian fielding in Test matches is safe without being threatening or having the potential to turn the game. If wickets are quite flat, than those half chances need to be taken. 
    • PACE BOWLING
    Losing Sharma for the first Test is a big loss, but on the long term, it may be a bonus. Test cricket is physically very intense and Sharma certainly plays that way, charging in, giving 100% effort from the first ball to the last ball of the day. To endure the workload he carried in Australia with injuries to only toes and fingers is a remarkable effort. An enforced break is probably a wise move to ensure his long term future is protected. 

    India's fast bowling line up may be short of Test match fitness with RP Singh & Sreesanth coming back in after injury. Pathan will have to carry the early workload, if they play three seamers and even more so, if only two. I believe the spinners will dominate this series for India, so the impact either way of the pace attack may be minimal unless the wickets have changed dramatically or rain intervenes.
    • OPENING BATSMEN
    The opening position is still a concern for India. Sehwag would appear to have one spot secured but who will open with him – Jaffer, Dravid or Pathan. With Steyn bowling similarly to Brett Lee (fast outswing), Jaffer may have some trouble. Dravid proved effective in Australia without ever really dominating and if Pathan opens, it may allow either a third spinner or an extra batsman to play down the order. 

    OPPORTUNITIES
    • COLLAPSES
    Given South Africa's weakness against spin bowling, I believe there is a great opportunity for bundles of wickets to fall in a hurry. There may not be a lot in the first two wickets for the quicks, but once the spinners have taken one or two wickets, South Africa will need to play above their previous best to consolidate and build big partnerships. 
    • OPTIMAL PERFORMANCES STATE
    Sehwag should perform well in this series. He likes the ball coming onto the bat, which is what the South African attack will provide. He has performed well against South Africa in India in the past and also made 155 last time he played a Test in Chennai, added to that he is coming off a big hundred against Australia – all the signs are there that he should be in the right frame of mind to make runs. 
    • SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT
    Tendulkar and Ganguly have only moderate records against South Africa and will be keen to improve those in what will likely be their last series against the Proteas. The will look to get through Morne Morkel and Dale Steyn down and then push onto big hundreds. 

    THREATS
    • WORKLOAD
    India have played a lot of cricket over the past 12 months, including an exhausting tour of Australia which will have taken as much out of them mentally as it did physically. Teams seem to always "aim up" to play the leading team or teams in any competition. The English team collapsed following their Ashes triumph in 2005. There has been a short break since the Indian team left Australia, so there may not be the "let down effect" after the Border – Gavaskar series. I am sure Gary Kirsten and his team will be aware of this and ensure the team is up and ready to play the South Africans.
    • HISTORY
    India have played a lot of cricket over the past 12 months, including an exhausting tour of Australia which will have taken as much out of them mentally as it did physically.The much vaunted core batting groups' performances against South Africa in India have not been as productive as one would have expected. 
      
    India v South Africa Performances in India
    Sehwag 262 @ 87
    Dravid 450 @ 37
    Tendulkar 367 @ 30.58
    Ganguly 230 @ 23
    Karthik 47 @ 23
    Laxman 140 @ 17.5
    Jaffer 46 @ 11

    As I mentioned in my opening, the battles within a players own head may determine the outcome of this series. However if you take Sehwag out of that list, the remaining history for the Indian batsmen is quite poor. I expect Tendulkar and Ganguly will make runs, but if one or both of them fail and India are relying on Laxman, Jaffer, Yuvraj, Dhoni and Dinesh Karthik for contributions, I think South Africa will be right in the contest.  


    SOUTH AFRICA

    STRENGTHS
    • PHYSICALITY

    © Getty Images
    Dale Steyn has been a revelation for South Africa
    South Africa is a physical side. They are strong and athletic and will try to gain some advantage by physically imposing themselves on the contest. They have a range of highly skilled batsmen, but aside from Kallis and Smith they lack experience in India.    

    • NEW BALL
    If South Africa goes with Morkel and Steyn with the new ball, they will pose a big threat to the Indian top order. However, once the shine goes off the ball there will be runs a plenty.
    • JACQUES KALLIS 
    Kallis is obviously a key player for South Africa. He will make runs and will bowl wide of off stump, hoping to frustrate batsmen out. He has taken 5 wickets at 15 against India in India, which is fair return.
    • FIELDING 
    South Africa's fieldsmen are the only ones in the world that can consistently match the Australian fielding standards. De Villiers is outstanding

    WEAKNESSES
    • SPIN BOWLING 
    Having been brought up against pace bowling, in generally their batsmen do not perform well against spin and I think most teams around the world will try to exploit that. India is well placed to do this and how the South Africans handle Kumble and Harbajhan when they take wickets will determine the series. 

    South Africa's spin bowling stocks are quite bare as well and will pose little threat to the Indian batsmen. Harris looks solid, but it takes a very good spinner to tame the Indians in their own conditions and I am not sure if he is that class yet. Robin Petersen will provide back up, but again I don't think he will trouble the Indian batsmen. 
    • LACK OF VARIETY

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    Lack of variety with the ball: The South African attack tends not to offer a lot of variety and can suffer once a partnership is established. They have some good bowlers when the ball is moving around, but once this movement subsides or a partnership builds, I think they lack options to break it. If the Indian top order can get through the first hour of each Innings, they will make big scores.

    • INEXPERIENCE

    There is very little Test experience between Steyn, Morkel and Zondeki. Zondeki has been called up to replace Langeveldt on the back of outstand domestic form, but the domestic wickets of South Africa will be a far cry from the conditions in India. Ntini has been an excellent servant to South Africa over many years, but I believe his effectiveness, particularly on flat wickets may be waning.

    OPPORTUNITIES

    • EXPLOIT NEW BALL

    New ball attack of Morkel and Steyn will be vital to their success.

    • KEY PLAYERS

    Smith and Kallis will need to make consistent runs in this series if the Proteas stand any chance.

    THREATS

    • SPIN TWINS

    The threat of Kumble and Harbajhan as detailed earlier

    • EXTERNAL ISSUES

    Disharmony – there has obviously been some controversy surrounding selections of late and how this affects the team will influence their on-field performances when the going gets tough. If they start the series well, it may be covered over, but if India can get on top early and small cracks will widen rapidly, making life difficult for Smith.

    AUSTRALIAN PERSPECTIVE

    From an Australian perspective, both of these teams pose different challenges. We always play South Africa either in Australia or in South Africa so the conditions are favourable to both teams, making it harder to exploit their weakness against spin. I have made reference to this weakness, which is more pronounced in ODI cricket then in Tests where they have time to just sit on the bowling and wait for an error. I do still believe they are much more comfortable facing pace bowling and that India will exploit this. We have had some good battles with South Africa and in the recent past have managed to win the key moments in games which set us up for victory. India's experience will allow them to win more of these key moments and should put them on the path to victory.

    We obviously had a great battle with India this summer, with some high quality displays with bat and ball from both sides. I think if India can maintain some momentum from this series and some of their key individuals can overcome previously poor records against South Africa, then they should win this series comfortably. As I mentioned earlier, India has an outstanding leadership group that all appear to be working together which I think is a massive advantage over South Africa. It is similar to the way in which Australia has operated for many years with a core group of establish, well performing senior players, which allows young players to come into the side and just play, without worrying that the team's performance hinges on their own performance.

    Richard McInnes works with the Australian cricket team as a performance analyst.

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